The confirmation bias
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I am fascinated with cognitive biases. I’ve mentioned the confirmation bias before and whilst reading The Black Swan
by Nassim Nicolas Taleb (who is a big fan, as am I, of Kahneman & Tversky), I was reminded of the following statistic which I found in Mintzberg’s Strategy Bites Back
by Spyros G. Makridakis (pg. 168): believers remember 100% of confirming evidence but only have 40% accuracy when recalling disconfirming evidence. On the other hand skeptics can recall 90% of both confirming and disconfirming evidence.
A fact worth remembering when you’re next reading something
mel starrs Diversions Amos Tversky, Black Swan, Cognitive bias, Confirmation bias, Daniel Kahneman, Economics
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